Drivers

US 10Y TREASURY PUTTING IN A CLASSIC “BOTTOM” & “REVERSAL” PATTERN After breaking through the TNX’s long term overhead resistance we fully expected the long term overhead resistance to be tested since technically what was ‘resistance’ often becomes support after a breakout.  Additionally, since the TNX was coming from its upper 12 & 24 MMA […]

YIELD BOUNDARY CONDITIONS HAVE POWELL “SET-UP” FOR JUNE FOMC MEETING The Bond Market is putting a lot of pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to start rates cuts in July and to signal such in the upcoming June 19th FOMC Meeting. A meeting date two days prior to trader’s often volatile June Quadruple Witch. To […]

10Y US TREASURY NOTE (TNX) HITS MATASII TARGET We have hit the MATASII yield target of 2.08% for the 10Y US Treasury Note. This is exactly a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. Note that the recent TNX plunge was technically precipitated by the cross of the 80 WMA (black line) of the 40 WMA (blue line). WHERE […]

CREDIT MARKETS CRACKING IN A SYSTEMIC LIKE FASHION Here are Monday’s charts pulled from a report which give further detail of the yield drop shown above in the current “TNX” MATASII chart. VIX vs HY vs IG Credit markets are starting to crack more systemically… Flashing very bright warning lights to stocks…   BONDS Bond […]

SCHIFF: BOND MARKET RIGHT BUT MAKING WRONG BET Peter Schiff is out with a new note that on how he believes the bond market is right about its views and reaction to the pending recession. However, he feels they are missing what the outcome of the recession will be. That outcome is STAGFLATION. This would […]

SII – BONDS AT CRITICAL TECHNICAL INFLECTION POINT WITH INFLATION PRESSURES LOOMING The Macro Analytics “Secondary” Indicators for the 10Y US Treasury illustrates that with the recent drop in yield we have achieved our target yield which we established last fall. Here is the current 10Y US Treasury for yield as measured by the “TNX”: […]